论文标题：A real-time Global Warming Index

期刊： Scientific Reports

作者：K. Haustein et al

发表时间：2017/11/13

数字识别码：10.1038/s41598-017-14828-5

原文链接： https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-14828-5?utm_source=Other_website&utm_medium=Website_links&utm_content=RenLi-Nature-Scientific_Reports-Atmospheric_Science/Climate-China&utm_campaign=SCIREP_USG_JRCN_RL_sciencenet_GlobalWarmingIndex_Aug_2nd

《科学报告》发表了一篇题为“A real-time Global Warming Index ”的研究论文。在该篇文章中，以英国牛津大学环境变化研究所的K. Haustein为首，来自多个机构的数位专家团队提出了一个实时版本的变暖指数，以对造成全球变暖的人为因素进行评估。该指数弥补了Otto等提出的人为变暖指数在对内部变异的敏感性、自然或人为因素中的不确定性及其稳健性等方面缺乏全面评估的不足。

研究者们不仅提出了这一简化的全球人为变暖实时指数，而且还评估了其在气候强迫和短期气候波动的不确定性方面的稳健性。该指数为稳定温度目标提供了更好的科学背景，并有可能降低气候政策的波动性。研究者们同时还对温度观测、气候辐射强迫、内部变异以及模式反应这些因素引起的不确定性进行了量化。该指数和相关的人为变暖速率与其他一系列更复杂的方法一致，可以用来估计人类对可观测到的全球气温变化所做出影响。

摘要：We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.

阅读论文全文请访问： https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-14828-5?utm_source=Other_website&utm_medium=Website_links&utm_content=RenLi-Nature-Scientific_Reports-Atmospheric_Science/Climate-China&utm_campaign=SCIREP_USG_JRCN_RL_sciencenet_GlobalWarmingIndex_Aug_2nd

期刊介绍： Scientific Reports is an online, open access journal from the publishers of Nature. We publish scientifically valid primary research from all areas of the natural and clinical sciences.

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（来源：科学网）